Turkey 99%
Romania 95%
Iceland 90%
Armenia 85%
Malta 85%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 80%
Switzeland 70%
Sweden 55% (jury pick)
Portugal 40%
Finland 40%
Andorra 40%
Belarus 40%
Israel 40%
Montenegro 35%
Bulgaria 15%
Belgium 10%
FYR Macedonia 5%
Czech Republic 1%
So Turkey, Romania, Iceland, Armenia, Malta, Bosnia and Switzerland are most certainly going to qualify if their performance and vocals will be identical to these of third rehearsal. Portugal, Finland, Andorra, Belarus and Israel are borderliners, while Sweden will be through as a jury pick in my opinion, even if Malene enters audience Top-9.
To sum up, that's my prediction: Turkey, Romania, Iceland, Armenia, Malta, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Switzerland, Sweden, Israel, Finland
Good luck to all the countries and don't miss the fabulous interval act. :)